Publicação
The Portuguese Case: Factors Behind the Emergence of the Radical Right
| Resumo: | This thesis investigates the municipal-level drivers behind the electoral rise of the radical-right party Chega in Portugal from 2019 to 2025, a country previously resistant to such political movements. In the context of growing far-right support across Europe, Portugal presents a unique case marked by persistent regional inequalities, political dissatisfaction, welfarerelated tensions, and heightened perceptions of cultural and ethnic outgroups. This paper objective is to identify the socio-economic, demographic, and political factors that explain variation in Chega’s vote share across 308 municipalities. Using a comprehensive panel dataset constructed from official sources, including Statistics Portugal, Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana (IHRU), and other government databases, this study employs both cross-sectional and pooled regressions, and an ensemble model to evaluate the influence of local conditions across multiple electoral cycles. The results show that Chega’s support is higher in municipalities with lower average income, population density, aging index and greater Roma population presence. Furthermore, interaction models explore how the combined presence of immigrants and minorities interacts with house prices, crime rates, and unemployment to influence voting behaviour. This research emphasizes how local structural conditions shape political discontent, offering a distinct contribution to the literature on radical-right mobilization in Southern Europe. Policy implications include the need for regionally targeted interventions to address perceived inequalities, access to services, and cultural integration. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the geography of political dissatisfaction and offers a context for interpreting radical-right dynamics in contexts historically considered immune to such movements. |
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| Autores principais: | Rio, Andreia Filipa Paredes |
| Assunto: | Portugal Chega Radical Right Populism Political Discontent SDG 10 - Reduced inequalities SDG 16 - Peace, justice and strong institutions |
| Ano: | 2025 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| Resumo: | This thesis investigates the municipal-level drivers behind the electoral rise of the radical-right party Chega in Portugal from 2019 to 2025, a country previously resistant to such political movements. In the context of growing far-right support across Europe, Portugal presents a unique case marked by persistent regional inequalities, political dissatisfaction, welfarerelated tensions, and heightened perceptions of cultural and ethnic outgroups. This paper objective is to identify the socio-economic, demographic, and political factors that explain variation in Chega’s vote share across 308 municipalities. Using a comprehensive panel dataset constructed from official sources, including Statistics Portugal, Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana (IHRU), and other government databases, this study employs both cross-sectional and pooled regressions, and an ensemble model to evaluate the influence of local conditions across multiple electoral cycles. The results show that Chega’s support is higher in municipalities with lower average income, population density, aging index and greater Roma population presence. Furthermore, interaction models explore how the combined presence of immigrants and minorities interacts with house prices, crime rates, and unemployment to influence voting behaviour. This research emphasizes how local structural conditions shape political discontent, offering a distinct contribution to the literature on radical-right mobilization in Southern Europe. Policy implications include the need for regionally targeted interventions to address perceived inequalities, access to services, and cultural integration. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the geography of political dissatisfaction and offers a context for interpreting radical-right dynamics in contexts historically considered immune to such movements. |
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