Publicação
Nominal and inflation-linked government bonds: An assessment of arbitrage opportunities in UK Gilt Market
| Resumo: | This study is an assessment of the existence of deviations of the Law of One Price in the UK sovereign debt market. UK government issues two types of debt instruments: nominal gilts and inflation-linked (IL) gilts. Constructing a synthetic bond comprising the IL bonds and also inflation-swaps and gilt strips I was able to build a portfolio that pays to investor exactly the same cash-flow as nominal gilts, with the same maturity. I found that the weighted-average mispricing throughout the period of 2006-11 is only £0,155 per £100 notional. Though, if I restrain my analysis to the 2008-09 crisis period, this amount raises to £4,5 per £100 invested. The weighted-average mispricing can reach values of £21 per £100 notional or, if measured in yield terms, 235 basis points. I have also found evidence that available liquidity on the market and increases on index-linked gilts supply do play a significant role on monthly changes of mispricing in the UK market. I concluded that, although the global mispricing is not significant on UK gilt market, every pair of bonds in the sample presented huge and significant arbitrage opportunities in downturn periods. |
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| Autores principais: | Vilas-Boas, João Pinto Teixeira |
| Assunto: | Gilts Inflation-Linked Gilts Mispricing Supply Liquidity |
| Ano: | 2013 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| Resumo: | This study is an assessment of the existence of deviations of the Law of One Price in the UK sovereign debt market. UK government issues two types of debt instruments: nominal gilts and inflation-linked (IL) gilts. Constructing a synthetic bond comprising the IL bonds and also inflation-swaps and gilt strips I was able to build a portfolio that pays to investor exactly the same cash-flow as nominal gilts, with the same maturity. I found that the weighted-average mispricing throughout the period of 2006-11 is only £0,155 per £100 notional. Though, if I restrain my analysis to the 2008-09 crisis period, this amount raises to £4,5 per £100 invested. The weighted-average mispricing can reach values of £21 per £100 notional or, if measured in yield terms, 235 basis points. I have also found evidence that available liquidity on the market and increases on index-linked gilts supply do play a significant role on monthly changes of mispricing in the UK market. I concluded that, although the global mispricing is not significant on UK gilt market, every pair of bonds in the sample presented huge and significant arbitrage opportunities in downturn periods. |
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