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Enhancing carbon sinks in China using a spatially-optimized forestation strategy

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Resumo:China plans expanding 49.5 million hectares of new forests by 2050 to strengthen carbon sequestration. However, estimates of the carbon benefits from this expansion rarely consider the effect of ‘forest edge’, where tree mortality increases under intensified stress from wind, drought, pests, and fire. Here we show that proximity to forest edges substantially reduces biomass carbon storage, and develop a spatial optimization strategy that prioritizes planting in areas that minimize edge effects. Our projections show that forestation optimized for edge effects results in a 51% increase in carbon gain (986 ± 22 Tg by 2060), with approximately half of the total gain driven by reduced edge effects. These findings demonstrate that ignoring edge effects can significantly overestimate carbon sink potential and highlight spatially optimized forestation as a pathway to maximize climate mitigation and ecological benefits.
Autores principais:Dong, Yanli
Outros Autores:Yu, Zhen; Pugh, Thomas; Agathokleous, Evgenios; Zhang, Fangmin; Sitch, Stephen; You, Weibin; Han, Wangya; Olin, Stefan; Liu, Shirong; Zhou, Guoyi; Cabral, Pedro; Sun, Pengsen
Assunto:General Chemistry General Biochemistry,Genetics and Molecular Biology General General Physics and Astronomy SDG 13 - Climate Action SDG 15 - Life on Land
Ano:2026
País:Portugal
Tipo de documento:artigo
Tipo de acesso:acesso aberto
Instituição associada:Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Idioma:inglês
Origem:Repositório Institucional da UNL
Descrição
Resumo:China plans expanding 49.5 million hectares of new forests by 2050 to strengthen carbon sequestration. However, estimates of the carbon benefits from this expansion rarely consider the effect of ‘forest edge’, where tree mortality increases under intensified stress from wind, drought, pests, and fire. Here we show that proximity to forest edges substantially reduces biomass carbon storage, and develop a spatial optimization strategy that prioritizes planting in areas that minimize edge effects. Our projections show that forestation optimized for edge effects results in a 51% increase in carbon gain (986 ± 22 Tg by 2060), with approximately half of the total gain driven by reduced edge effects. These findings demonstrate that ignoring edge effects can significantly overestimate carbon sink potential and highlight spatially optimized forestation as a pathway to maximize climate mitigation and ecological benefits.