Publication
Portuguese automotive aftermarket forecast through time-series analysis and modelling
| Summary: | The composition of the future car fleet is interesting tomany. The automotive aftermarket’s concerns rely on the diminishment of profitable segments and the growth of not-so-maintenance-intensive electric vehicles. This project develops time-series forecasting models, namely ARIMA models, predicting the Portuguese car fleet in 2030, which declines 11.6%, to around 5.4 million vehicles. Upon this knowledge, the consequences of the share of electric vehicles rising up to 16.7% are assessed, along with other external factors’, under three scenarios. One factor seemingly highly influential is car sharing services, as the vehicle segment typically associated with it is predicted to grow 65%. |
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| Main Authors: | Machado, Pedro Maria De Castro Lopes E Figueira |
| Subject: | Fleet modelling Automotive aftermarket Forecast Arima |
| Year: | 2021 |
| Country: | Portugal |
| Document type: | master thesis |
| Access type: | open access |
| Associated institution: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Language: | English |
| Origin: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| Summary: | The composition of the future car fleet is interesting tomany. The automotive aftermarket’s concerns rely on the diminishment of profitable segments and the growth of not-so-maintenance-intensive electric vehicles. This project develops time-series forecasting models, namely ARIMA models, predicting the Portuguese car fleet in 2030, which declines 11.6%, to around 5.4 million vehicles. Upon this knowledge, the consequences of the share of electric vehicles rising up to 16.7% are assessed, along with other external factors’, under three scenarios. One factor seemingly highly influential is car sharing services, as the vehicle segment typically associated with it is predicted to grow 65%. |
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