Publicação
The impact of debt-for-nature and debt-for-climate swaps on sovereign credit ratings: a quantitative analysis of emerging markets
| Resumo: | This thesis examines the impact of debt-for-nature (DFN) and debt-for-climate (DFC) swaps on sovereign credit ratings in emerging economies. Using a novel dataset (1990–2021) and a mixed methods design combining panel regressions and difference-in-differences, it finds that swap participation alone does not systematically affect ratings. However, design features matter: large treated-debt shares are linked to rating declines, while higher environmental allocations yield positive effects. Outcomes differ by debt levels—high-debt countries experience delayed improvements, whereas low-debt countries often face short-term downgrades. These findings highlight the conditional financial implications of DFN/DFC swaps and their policy relevance for sustainable debt management. |
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| Autores principais: | Castaneda, Miguel Rodrigo Nau |
| Assunto: | Climate finance Climate mitigation climate swap Debt debt conversion Debt restructuring Debt swap Debt-for-climate swap Debt-for-nature swap Environmental protection |
| Ano: | 2025 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| Resumo: | This thesis examines the impact of debt-for-nature (DFN) and debt-for-climate (DFC) swaps on sovereign credit ratings in emerging economies. Using a novel dataset (1990–2021) and a mixed methods design combining panel regressions and difference-in-differences, it finds that swap participation alone does not systematically affect ratings. However, design features matter: large treated-debt shares are linked to rating declines, while higher environmental allocations yield positive effects. Outcomes differ by debt levels—high-debt countries experience delayed improvements, whereas low-debt countries often face short-term downgrades. These findings highlight the conditional financial implications of DFN/DFC swaps and their policy relevance for sustainable debt management. |
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