Publicação

Dynamics of behavioral heterogeneity in asset prices

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Resumo:I estimate a stock price model using daily data, wherein investors shift between market efficiency and momentum beliefs contingent on their prior forecast performance. I find the presence of dynamic switching behavior, where market efficiency beliefs predominantly prevail, but occasionally, momentum beliefs become prevalent. While the majority of trading days show a relatively modest impact of the fraction of momentum believers on stock price returns, heightened levels in the lagged fraction correspond to a discernible decline in stock prices. This trend is notably evident on days featuring substantial losses and those characterized by noteworthy gains.
Autores principais:Wolpert, Lea Isabel
Assunto:Heterogeneous expectations Stock prices Momentum Daily data Behavioral finance Switching strategies
Ano:2024
País:Portugal
Tipo de documento:dissertação de mestrado
Tipo de acesso:acesso aberto
Instituição associada:Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Idioma:inglês
Origem:Repositório Institucional da UNL
Descrição
Resumo:I estimate a stock price model using daily data, wherein investors shift between market efficiency and momentum beliefs contingent on their prior forecast performance. I find the presence of dynamic switching behavior, where market efficiency beliefs predominantly prevail, but occasionally, momentum beliefs become prevalent. While the majority of trading days show a relatively modest impact of the fraction of momentum believers on stock price returns, heightened levels in the lagged fraction correspond to a discernible decline in stock prices. This trend is notably evident on days featuring substantial losses and those characterized by noteworthy gains.