Publicação
Intra-urban spatial fire risk model: population and fire load factors
| Resumo: | Although urban fires cause hundreds of deaths and enormous damage to property each year around the world, few studies have focused on developing a simple model to estimate the risk of urban fires. This article sets out to create and implement a spatial model of intra-urban fire risk with only two variables, population and fire load value. A medium-sized Brazilian urban area was selected for empirical analysis. Maps and statistical techniques were employed, such as Moran indices, linear regression, and spatial error regression. The results show that fire occurrence is concentrated in the intra-urban space and the population variable was not statistically significant, but the fire load variable was positive and significant in association with fire risks. The implications of the results, in terms of public policies, technical standards, and protocols are discussed in the conclusion. |
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| Autores principais: | França, Carlos David Veiga |
| Outros Autores: | Melo, Silas Nogueira de; de Castro, Claudio Eduardo; dos Santos, Luiz Carlos Araújo |
| Assunto: | Fire risk spatial model fire load population intra-urban Risco de incêndio modelo espacial carga de incêndio população intraurbano |
| Ano: | 2020 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Tipo de acesso: | unknown |
| Instituição associada: | Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra |
| Idioma: | português |
| Origem: | Territorium |
| Resumo: | Although urban fires cause hundreds of deaths and enormous damage to property each year around the world, few studies have focused on developing a simple model to estimate the risk of urban fires. This article sets out to create and implement a spatial model of intra-urban fire risk with only two variables, population and fire load value. A medium-sized Brazilian urban area was selected for empirical analysis. Maps and statistical techniques were employed, such as Moran indices, linear regression, and spatial error regression. The results show that fire occurrence is concentrated in the intra-urban space and the population variable was not statistically significant, but the fire load variable was positive and significant in association with fire risks. The implications of the results, in terms of public policies, technical standards, and protocols are discussed in the conclusion. |
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