Publicação
Growth and productivity: The role of government debt
| Resumo: | We use a panel of 155 countries to assess the links between growth, productivity and government debt. Via growth equations we assess simultaneity, endogeneity, cross-section dependence, nonlinearities, and threshold effects.We find a negative effect of the debt ratio. For the OECD, the higher the debt maturity the higher the economic growth; financial crisis is detrimental for growth; fiscal consolidation promotes growth; and higher debt ratios are beneficial to TFP growth. The growth impact of a 10% increase in the debt ratio is −0.2% (0.1%) respectively for countries with debt ratios above (below) 90% (30%), and an endogenous debt ratio threshold of 59% can be derived. |
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| Autores principais: | Afonso, António |
| Outros Autores: | Jalles, João Tovar |
| Assunto: | Government Debt Crises Panel Analysis |
| Ano: | 2013 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| Resumo: | We use a panel of 155 countries to assess the links between growth, productivity and government debt. Via growth equations we assess simultaneity, endogeneity, cross-section dependence, nonlinearities, and threshold effects.We find a negative effect of the debt ratio. For the OECD, the higher the debt maturity the higher the economic growth; financial crisis is detrimental for growth; fiscal consolidation promotes growth; and higher debt ratios are beneficial to TFP growth. The growth impact of a 10% increase in the debt ratio is −0.2% (0.1%) respectively for countries with debt ratios above (below) 90% (30%), and an endogenous debt ratio threshold of 59% can be derived. |
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