Publicação
Terror and its fiscal consequences
| Resumo: | We explore the impact of major terrorism shocks on macroeconomic and fiscal variables´ dynamics using an unbalanced panel of 191 heterogeneous countries from 1970 to 2018. By means of the local projection method, we find that a terrorist shock lowers a country’s real GDP as well as government tax revenues and raises debt-to-GDP ratio. The composition of government spending shifts in favor of military spending. Low-income countries are affected more than both emerging market and advanced economies. Our results are robust to a battery of sensitivity and robustness tests. |
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| Autores principais: | Clements, Benedict |
| Outros Autores: | Gupta, Sanjeev; Jalles, João Tovar; Khamidova, Saida |
| Assunto: | fiscal policy growth armed conflict terrorism panel data local projection method seemingly unrelated regressions |
| Ano: | 2020 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | working paper |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| Resumo: | We explore the impact of major terrorism shocks on macroeconomic and fiscal variables´ dynamics using an unbalanced panel of 191 heterogeneous countries from 1970 to 2018. By means of the local projection method, we find that a terrorist shock lowers a country’s real GDP as well as government tax revenues and raises debt-to-GDP ratio. The composition of government spending shifts in favor of military spending. Low-income countries are affected more than both emerging market and advanced economies. Our results are robust to a battery of sensitivity and robustness tests. |
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