Publicação
Projecting the effect of inflation on Spanish motor vehicle bodily injury claims
| Resumo: | This report describes my 5-month internship experience in the Actuarial Non-Life Reserving team at Liberty Seguros, a leading insurance company in Portugal. Liberty Seguros Portugal is a branch of Liberty Seguros Spain, and together with Spain and Ireland operates as the Western Europe Market (“WEM”) business unit for Liberty Mutual Group. During my internship, I was tasked with assisting the team of actuaries in analysing the company's reserve levels and developing financial models to estimate future liabilities. Throughout the internship, I gained valuable experience in using statistical software packages and actuarial models to conduct data analysis, estimate reserve levels, and analyse loss trends. I also participated in various team meetings and had the opportunity to collaborate with senior actuaries and other members of the reserving team on several projects. The report provides an overview of the specific project I worked on during the internship, developing a reserve model for the motor line of business in Spain and analysing the impact of continuous and step change inflation. It also highlights the skills and knowledge I acquired, including an understanding of actuarial reserving methodologies, improved data analysis skills, and experience working with statistical software packages. Additionally, the report includes recommendations for Liberty Seguros on how to improve its reserving processes and procedures, based on my observations and experiences during the internship. For reserve modelling, we use the traditional Chain Ladder method or the Bornhuetter-Ferguson (“BF”) method to estimate the ultimate claim cost. A key assumption of the traditional chain ladder method is that the observed historical inflation will remain constant in the future, which may not be realistic in the real world. This research paper focuses majorly on incorporating future inflation in the reserving model. Overall, the internship at Liberty Seguros provided me with valuable insights into the operations of an actuarial reserving department in the insurance industry, and I gained practical experience that will be useful in my future career as an actuary. |
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| Autores principais: | Goswami, Ansh |
| Assunto: | Loss Reserving Chain Ladder Bodily Injury Baremo Inflation Regression |
| Ano: | 2023 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| Resumo: | This report describes my 5-month internship experience in the Actuarial Non-Life Reserving team at Liberty Seguros, a leading insurance company in Portugal. Liberty Seguros Portugal is a branch of Liberty Seguros Spain, and together with Spain and Ireland operates as the Western Europe Market (“WEM”) business unit for Liberty Mutual Group. During my internship, I was tasked with assisting the team of actuaries in analysing the company's reserve levels and developing financial models to estimate future liabilities. Throughout the internship, I gained valuable experience in using statistical software packages and actuarial models to conduct data analysis, estimate reserve levels, and analyse loss trends. I also participated in various team meetings and had the opportunity to collaborate with senior actuaries and other members of the reserving team on several projects. The report provides an overview of the specific project I worked on during the internship, developing a reserve model for the motor line of business in Spain and analysing the impact of continuous and step change inflation. It also highlights the skills and knowledge I acquired, including an understanding of actuarial reserving methodologies, improved data analysis skills, and experience working with statistical software packages. Additionally, the report includes recommendations for Liberty Seguros on how to improve its reserving processes and procedures, based on my observations and experiences during the internship. For reserve modelling, we use the traditional Chain Ladder method or the Bornhuetter-Ferguson (“BF”) method to estimate the ultimate claim cost. A key assumption of the traditional chain ladder method is that the observed historical inflation will remain constant in the future, which may not be realistic in the real world. This research paper focuses majorly on incorporating future inflation in the reserving model. Overall, the internship at Liberty Seguros provided me with valuable insights into the operations of an actuarial reserving department in the insurance industry, and I gained practical experience that will be useful in my future career as an actuary. |
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