Publicação
Equity research: Deutsche Lufthansa AG
| Resumo: | Lufthansa is one of the leading European Airlines. The company is involved in business activities such as air passenger transportation, air cargo transportation, Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul and other additional activities like IT services, flight personnel training, travel agencies and others. This report issues a HOLD recommendation with a 2025YE price target of €8.3/Sh., using a DCF model, with an upside potential of 23.2% in 15 months, corresponding to an annualized return of 18.1%, against the closing price of €6.71/Share, as of October 1, 2024, with a high risk. The upside potential of the company is mainly explained by the expected increase in demand for air travel and MRO market in the next years. Lufthansa, in turn, has all the tools and potential to grow along with the market. The main valuation model to sustain the investment was the Free Cash Flows to the Firm model, using WACC as the discount rate. Additional absolute valuations models were computed, including FCFE, APV and Residual Income as well as several Multiples Based Valuations, to stress the Price Target determined. Deutsche Lufthansa AG operates in a volatile market that is strongly dependent on external macroeconomic factors. The investment main risks are the fuel prices fluctuations, inflation and economic crisis. The company value is highly sensitive to these factors. |
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| Autores principais: | Ismagilov, Timur |
| Assunto: | Equity Research Valuation Deutsche Lufthansa AG Equity Research Avaliação de Empresas Deutsche Lufthansa AG |
| Ano: | 2024 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| Resumo: | Lufthansa is one of the leading European Airlines. The company is involved in business activities such as air passenger transportation, air cargo transportation, Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul and other additional activities like IT services, flight personnel training, travel agencies and others. This report issues a HOLD recommendation with a 2025YE price target of €8.3/Sh., using a DCF model, with an upside potential of 23.2% in 15 months, corresponding to an annualized return of 18.1%, against the closing price of €6.71/Share, as of October 1, 2024, with a high risk. The upside potential of the company is mainly explained by the expected increase in demand for air travel and MRO market in the next years. Lufthansa, in turn, has all the tools and potential to grow along with the market. The main valuation model to sustain the investment was the Free Cash Flows to the Firm model, using WACC as the discount rate. Additional absolute valuations models were computed, including FCFE, APV and Residual Income as well as several Multiples Based Valuations, to stress the Price Target determined. Deutsche Lufthansa AG operates in a volatile market that is strongly dependent on external macroeconomic factors. The investment main risks are the fuel prices fluctuations, inflation and economic crisis. The company value is highly sensitive to these factors. |
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