Publicação
The effectiveness of Two-Risk Levels containment measures applied during Portuguese COVID-19 second wave: an interrupted time series study
| Resumo: | In order to contain COVID-19 disease dissemination, originated by SARS-CoV-2 viral infection, the Portuguese government took several actions during the country’s second wave. One of such measures was the separation of municipalities into two risk levels, according to their 14 day-cumulative incidence, with containment measures applied according to each level. The objective of this master’s project was to evaluate if this type of targeted containment measures were effective in halting or even reducing the pandemic growth. The aforementioned evaluation was performed using two variables, regularly used to monitor the estate of the pandemic, the number of daily positive COVID-19 tests and the number of daily deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Using an Interrupted Time Series analysis, both variables were modelled trough an impact model with the objective of comparing the pre intervention trend with the post intervention trend. The results show a significant negative change in the regression slope, either for daily tests (p-value < 0.001) as for deaths (p-value < 0.001). The Two-Risk level division of the Portuguese municipalities and application of containment measures according to the level was effective in controlling viral dispersion, either in reducing the number of positive tests as well as the number of daily deaths. Although expected that this type of containment measures will not produce the same level of control as the general confinement of the population, it can still create a significant positive impact while having an estimated smaller socioeconomic impact compared to the impact generated by a full lockdown. As such, targeted containment measures should be considered in future COVID-19 outbreaks as well as in controlling the dissemination of future viruses with pandemic potential. |
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| Autores principais: | Anjos, Hugo Alexandre Monoz dos |
| Assunto: | COVID-19 Medidas de mitigação lockdown Séries Temporais Interrompidas Segunda vaga Trabalhos de projeto de mestrado - 2022 |
| Ano: | 2022 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| Resumo: | In order to contain COVID-19 disease dissemination, originated by SARS-CoV-2 viral infection, the Portuguese government took several actions during the country’s second wave. One of such measures was the separation of municipalities into two risk levels, according to their 14 day-cumulative incidence, with containment measures applied according to each level. The objective of this master’s project was to evaluate if this type of targeted containment measures were effective in halting or even reducing the pandemic growth. The aforementioned evaluation was performed using two variables, regularly used to monitor the estate of the pandemic, the number of daily positive COVID-19 tests and the number of daily deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Using an Interrupted Time Series analysis, both variables were modelled trough an impact model with the objective of comparing the pre intervention trend with the post intervention trend. The results show a significant negative change in the regression slope, either for daily tests (p-value < 0.001) as for deaths (p-value < 0.001). The Two-Risk level division of the Portuguese municipalities and application of containment measures according to the level was effective in controlling viral dispersion, either in reducing the number of positive tests as well as the number of daily deaths. Although expected that this type of containment measures will not produce the same level of control as the general confinement of the population, it can still create a significant positive impact while having an estimated smaller socioeconomic impact compared to the impact generated by a full lockdown. As such, targeted containment measures should be considered in future COVID-19 outbreaks as well as in controlling the dissemination of future viruses with pandemic potential. |
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