Publication
Does the Russia-Ukraine war cause exchange rate depreciation? Evidence from the rouble exchange rate
| Summary: | This paper aims to examine the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on the USD/ RUB rate. The outcome reveals that war has severe adverse consequences for the USD/RUB rate. It implies that the exchange rate witnessed rapid depreciation following the outbreak of war in February 2022. The findings suggest a significant deviation from the predicted value and show that the USD/RUB exchange rate consistently remained lower than would have been anticipated in the absence of the conflict. On the other hand, the regression discontinuity method supports the finding that the USD/RUB exchange rate has significantly depreciated after the war. The study indicates that war has increased uncertainty and affects exchange rates, causing a noticeable difference between predicted and actual rates. These findings highlight the significance of contingency planning, efficient disaster management, access to market information, and accurate predictive modeling. |
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| Main Authors: | Jia, Haibo |
| Other Authors: | Yun, Hao; Khan, Khalid |
| Subject: | Exchange rate Russia-Ukraine conflict Causal inference Depreciation Counterfactual |
| Year: | 2025 |
| Country: | Portugal |
| Document type: | article |
| Access type: | restricted access |
| Associated institution: | Universidade de Lisboa |
| Language: | English |
| Origin: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| Summary: | This paper aims to examine the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on the USD/ RUB rate. The outcome reveals that war has severe adverse consequences for the USD/RUB rate. It implies that the exchange rate witnessed rapid depreciation following the outbreak of war in February 2022. The findings suggest a significant deviation from the predicted value and show that the USD/RUB exchange rate consistently remained lower than would have been anticipated in the absence of the conflict. On the other hand, the regression discontinuity method supports the finding that the USD/RUB exchange rate has significantly depreciated after the war. The study indicates that war has increased uncertainty and affects exchange rates, causing a noticeable difference between predicted and actual rates. These findings highlight the significance of contingency planning, efficient disaster management, access to market information, and accurate predictive modeling. |
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