Publicação
Marine and Coastal Ecosystem Services: a geospatial approach
| Resumo: | The ongoing expansion of maritime activities and the intensifying effects of climate change pose significant challenges for managing coastal and marine ecosystems effectively. These problematics highlight the need for efficient Ecosystem-based Management (EBM) in coastal and marine regions to maintain their capacity to supply Ecosystem Services (ES) and Societal Goods and Benefits (SGB). In this context, this thesis aimed to investigate the supply of Regulation and Maintenance Ecosystem Services (RMES) on the northern Portuguese coast and the potential impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change, employing an transdisciplinary approach. This study addressed the knowledge gaps on ES supply, particularly regarding its ecological foundations within coastal and marine regions, by integrating the ES cascade framework with network analysis. It identified both direct and indirect contributors to essential ecological functions underlying the supply of RMES. Results showed the importance of the lower trophic levels in directly supporting the function provision. It also highlighted their importance, especially the planktonic groups, phytoplankton and zooplankton, in indirectly support the function supply that contributes to RMES. While some functions (e.g. benthic primary production), showed potential low resistence and resilience due to dependence on a single or limited number of biotic groups, others (e.g. filtration of suspended matter or provision; refuge habitats) were supported by multiple biotic groups, enhancing their resistance and resilience against pressures. Hotspots and coldspots of RMES supply along the NW coast of Portugal were assessed based on 11 indicators for 9 RMES used as proxies. This spatial analysis also allowed to evaluate the region’s multifunctionality, and potential ES/SGB bundles. Results showed that 20% of the study area was classified as hotspots of RMES provision, i.e. areas with statistically significant higher values of RMES provision within the management area, and 28% classified as coldspots. The hotspots were mainly distributed along coastal areas and estuaries, with three main marine regions identified. While in general 39% of the areas identified as important for RMES provision were already protected, in the marine region there was a spatial mismatch between RMES supply hotspots and MPAs, with only 30% of hotspots identified in this study currently under protection. Estuarine saltmarshes of NW Portugal were identified as hotspots of RMES supply, namely carbon storage and sequestration. The analysis of the carbon stocks of the estuarine saltmarshes of the rivers Minho, Lima and Cávado estimated a combined stock of 38, 798 ± 2, 880 tonnes of organic carbon, valued at 3.96 ± 0.38 million euros, at current carbon market prices (2023). Species-specific and regional differences were found, with Lima estuarine saltmarsh Spartina patens and Phragmites australis showing the highest carbon stocks per species cover. Results showed that Lima’s saltmarsh showed greater resistence to Sea Level Rise (SLR), while Cávado was at higher inundation risk according to the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Shared Socio-economic pathways (SSPs). The projected habitat losses in the three saltmarshes ranged from 11% up to 96%, which could represent CO2 emissions between 22,000 and 43,449 tonnes by 2050, and 33,000 to 130,000 tonnes by 2100 under the high-emission IPCC Assessment Report (AR) 6 scenarios (SSP5-8.5). A cumulative risk-based approach was employed to assess the risk of anthropogenic activities and climate change to habitats and the ecosystem in the region, under different management narratives and three IPCC SSPs scenarios. The findings reveal high ecosystem risks in specific areas of NW Portugal, mainly beaches, aphotic zones, and estuaries. Key risk drivers include rising sea surface temperatures, increased coastal exposure to sea-level rise and storms, fishing, tourism, artificial infrastructure, and maritime transport. Spatial risk patterns showed a greater variation of the overall risk across management scenarios than between climate scenarios. In fact, climate-related pressures exacerbated the overall risk to the ecosystem, particularly at coastal regions. Lastly, stakeholder priorities for RMES in Portugal’s NW coast were assessed and compared with previous scientific assessments. Stakeholders from four different sectors of the society, prioritized RMES and identified key RMES supply areas, pressures, and their 20-vision for the region. Sixteen of 20 RMES were ranked as ‘Very Important’, with agreement on the highest importance of ‘erosion control’, ‘buffering mass movements’, ‘water flow regulation (including coastal protection)’, ‘maintenance of nursery and breeding’, ‘refuge and feeding habitats’, ‘regulation of chemical quality of waters’ or ‘climate regulation’. Estuaries and northern coastal areas were highlighted as the main areas of RMES supply. Ten major activities were identified as sources of pressure, especially in coastal and estuarine regions where potential conflict areas were identified between fishing, tourism, and potential offshore wind farms. Stakeholder maps largely aligned with scientific assessments nearshore, although discrepancies were observed in offshore areas. The stakeholder’s 20-year vision aligned with policy goals, emphasizing EBM to sustain the region’s natural capital, and a resilient ES and SGB supply that could sustain the region’s socio-economic activities. Overall, this thesis provides a comprehensive, multi-scale assessment of RMES supply and risks of NW Portugal. By linking ecological and socio-economic dimensions, this thesis provided a holistic assessment of RMES, providing fundamental scientific evidence that can support efficient management. Results highlighted the high natural capital of the region, which is also under high risk from anthropogenic and climate change-derived pressures. This thesis also emphasized the need to prioritize RMES supply and the urgency to implement adaptive, risk-informed management plans that account for the combined pressures of human activities and climate change. |
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| Autores principais: | Cunha, Jacinto Fernando Ribeiro |
| Assunto: | Regulation and maintenance ecosystem services marine and coastal systems climate change ecosystem-based management blue carbon |
| Ano: | 2025 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | tese de doutoramento |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso embargado |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório da UTAD |
| Resumo: | The ongoing expansion of maritime activities and the intensifying effects of climate change pose significant challenges for managing coastal and marine ecosystems effectively. These problematics highlight the need for efficient Ecosystem-based Management (EBM) in coastal and marine regions to maintain their capacity to supply Ecosystem Services (ES) and Societal Goods and Benefits (SGB). In this context, this thesis aimed to investigate the supply of Regulation and Maintenance Ecosystem Services (RMES) on the northern Portuguese coast and the potential impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change, employing an transdisciplinary approach. This study addressed the knowledge gaps on ES supply, particularly regarding its ecological foundations within coastal and marine regions, by integrating the ES cascade framework with network analysis. It identified both direct and indirect contributors to essential ecological functions underlying the supply of RMES. Results showed the importance of the lower trophic levels in directly supporting the function provision. It also highlighted their importance, especially the planktonic groups, phytoplankton and zooplankton, in indirectly support the function supply that contributes to RMES. While some functions (e.g. benthic primary production), showed potential low resistence and resilience due to dependence on a single or limited number of biotic groups, others (e.g. filtration of suspended matter or provision; refuge habitats) were supported by multiple biotic groups, enhancing their resistance and resilience against pressures. Hotspots and coldspots of RMES supply along the NW coast of Portugal were assessed based on 11 indicators for 9 RMES used as proxies. This spatial analysis also allowed to evaluate the region’s multifunctionality, and potential ES/SGB bundles. Results showed that 20% of the study area was classified as hotspots of RMES provision, i.e. areas with statistically significant higher values of RMES provision within the management area, and 28% classified as coldspots. The hotspots were mainly distributed along coastal areas and estuaries, with three main marine regions identified. While in general 39% of the areas identified as important for RMES provision were already protected, in the marine region there was a spatial mismatch between RMES supply hotspots and MPAs, with only 30% of hotspots identified in this study currently under protection. Estuarine saltmarshes of NW Portugal were identified as hotspots of RMES supply, namely carbon storage and sequestration. The analysis of the carbon stocks of the estuarine saltmarshes of the rivers Minho, Lima and Cávado estimated a combined stock of 38, 798 ± 2, 880 tonnes of organic carbon, valued at 3.96 ± 0.38 million euros, at current carbon market prices (2023). Species-specific and regional differences were found, with Lima estuarine saltmarsh Spartina patens and Phragmites australis showing the highest carbon stocks per species cover. Results showed that Lima’s saltmarsh showed greater resistence to Sea Level Rise (SLR), while Cávado was at higher inundation risk according to the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Shared Socio-economic pathways (SSPs). The projected habitat losses in the three saltmarshes ranged from 11% up to 96%, which could represent CO2 emissions between 22,000 and 43,449 tonnes by 2050, and 33,000 to 130,000 tonnes by 2100 under the high-emission IPCC Assessment Report (AR) 6 scenarios (SSP5-8.5). A cumulative risk-based approach was employed to assess the risk of anthropogenic activities and climate change to habitats and the ecosystem in the region, under different management narratives and three IPCC SSPs scenarios. The findings reveal high ecosystem risks in specific areas of NW Portugal, mainly beaches, aphotic zones, and estuaries. Key risk drivers include rising sea surface temperatures, increased coastal exposure to sea-level rise and storms, fishing, tourism, artificial infrastructure, and maritime transport. Spatial risk patterns showed a greater variation of the overall risk across management scenarios than between climate scenarios. In fact, climate-related pressures exacerbated the overall risk to the ecosystem, particularly at coastal regions. Lastly, stakeholder priorities for RMES in Portugal’s NW coast were assessed and compared with previous scientific assessments. Stakeholders from four different sectors of the society, prioritized RMES and identified key RMES supply areas, pressures, and their 20-vision for the region. Sixteen of 20 RMES were ranked as ‘Very Important’, with agreement on the highest importance of ‘erosion control’, ‘buffering mass movements’, ‘water flow regulation (including coastal protection)’, ‘maintenance of nursery and breeding’, ‘refuge and feeding habitats’, ‘regulation of chemical quality of waters’ or ‘climate regulation’. Estuaries and northern coastal areas were highlighted as the main areas of RMES supply. Ten major activities were identified as sources of pressure, especially in coastal and estuarine regions where potential conflict areas were identified between fishing, tourism, and potential offshore wind farms. Stakeholder maps largely aligned with scientific assessments nearshore, although discrepancies were observed in offshore areas. The stakeholder’s 20-year vision aligned with policy goals, emphasizing EBM to sustain the region’s natural capital, and a resilient ES and SGB supply that could sustain the region’s socio-economic activities. Overall, this thesis provides a comprehensive, multi-scale assessment of RMES supply and risks of NW Portugal. By linking ecological and socio-economic dimensions, this thesis provided a holistic assessment of RMES, providing fundamental scientific evidence that can support efficient management. Results highlighted the high natural capital of the region, which is also under high risk from anthropogenic and climate change-derived pressures. This thesis also emphasized the need to prioritize RMES supply and the urgency to implement adaptive, risk-informed management plans that account for the combined pressures of human activities and climate change. |
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