Publicação
Equity valuation of Carlsberg A/S: : a multi-method assessment of intrinsic value in a mature global brewing industry
| Resumo: | This thesis employs a multi-method valuation framework to determine the intrinsic equity value of Carlsberg A/S as of January 1, 2026. Carlsberg is a global leader in brewing with a diverse portfolio of beer and soft drink brands worldwide. The company generates continuous cash flow and faces structural trends, including premiumization and portfolio diversification. However, the recent Britvic transaction increased leverage and altered the capital structure, complicating valuation. Monte Carlo simulations, forward-looking trading multiples, and an adjusted present value framework reduce parameter uncertainty. For robustness, a standard discounted cash flow model based on WACC is calculated. Forecasts include strategic efforts, portfolio modifications to focus on premium and non-alcoholic categories, and deleveraging after the Britvic merger. Peer-group comparison ensures that the valuation meets industry norms and market benchmarks.A forward-looking multiple implies a value of DKK 1,085 per share, while the APV approach generates an equity value of DKK 1,049 per share. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation are indicative of the sensitivity of the results to discount rates, margin assumptions, and terminal growth parameters, as evidenced by the average equity value of DKK 1,048 per share. The central estimates across these approaches are reflected in the final target price of DKK 1,061.In general, the results suggest that Carlsberg’s market valuation is a fair reflection of its fundamental positioning as a stable consumer staple with moderate growth prospects. However, a balanced investment posture is warranted by the limited upside potential and sensitivity to long-term assumptions. |
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| Autores principais: | Ruethemann, Oskar Felix |
| Assunto: | Carlsberg A/S Equity valuation Adjusted present value (APV) Monte Carlo simulation Relative valuation Discounted cash flow (DCF) Brewing industry Premiumization Capital Structure Cost of Capital Avaliação do património líquido Valor presente ajustado (APV) Simulação de Monte Carlo Avaliação relativa Fluxo de caixa descontado (DCF) Indústria cervejeira Premiumização Estrutura de capital Custo de capital |
| Ano: | 2026 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
| Resumo: | This thesis employs a multi-method valuation framework to determine the intrinsic equity value of Carlsberg A/S as of January 1, 2026. Carlsberg is a global leader in brewing with a diverse portfolio of beer and soft drink brands worldwide. The company generates continuous cash flow and faces structural trends, including premiumization and portfolio diversification. However, the recent Britvic transaction increased leverage and altered the capital structure, complicating valuation. Monte Carlo simulations, forward-looking trading multiples, and an adjusted present value framework reduce parameter uncertainty. For robustness, a standard discounted cash flow model based on WACC is calculated. Forecasts include strategic efforts, portfolio modifications to focus on premium and non-alcoholic categories, and deleveraging after the Britvic merger. Peer-group comparison ensures that the valuation meets industry norms and market benchmarks.A forward-looking multiple implies a value of DKK 1,085 per share, while the APV approach generates an equity value of DKK 1,049 per share. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation are indicative of the sensitivity of the results to discount rates, margin assumptions, and terminal growth parameters, as evidenced by the average equity value of DKK 1,048 per share. The central estimates across these approaches are reflected in the final target price of DKK 1,061.In general, the results suggest that Carlsberg’s market valuation is a fair reflection of its fundamental positioning as a stable consumer staple with moderate growth prospects. However, a balanced investment posture is warranted by the limited upside potential and sensitivity to long-term assumptions. |
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