Publicação
COVID-19 and the safe haven role of US dollar : a threshold regression analysis
| Resumo: | The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has shaken the global financial system and caused great turmoil. Facing unprecedented risks in the markets, people have increasing needs to find a safe haven for their investments. Given that the nature of this crisis is a combination of multiple problems, it is substantially different from all other financial crises known to us. It is therefore urgent to re-evaluate the role of traditional safe haven candidates. The aim of this thesis is to test the hypothesis that the United States Dollar represents a safe haven against stocks of all developed countries during COVID-19 pandemic. I implement a threshold regression model to capture the non-linear linkages between safe haven assets and global stock markets, which is largely documented in the recent literature. Indeed, my empirical approach allows me to distinguish between a low- and high-stress regime, and to control for the impact of carry trade reversals. According to the estimation results, the US dollar acted as a strong safe haven during COVID-19 pandemic, experiencing no significant influence of carry trade dynamics. My results, paired with those of previous research on the haven-linked US dollar, further suggest that the safe haven role of a given asset may be sensitive to changes over time and across markets. |
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| Autores principais: | d´Esposito, Felice |
| Assunto: | COVID-19 Threshold model US dollar Safe haven Carry trade |
| Ano: | 2021 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
| Resumo: | The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has shaken the global financial system and caused great turmoil. Facing unprecedented risks in the markets, people have increasing needs to find a safe haven for their investments. Given that the nature of this crisis is a combination of multiple problems, it is substantially different from all other financial crises known to us. It is therefore urgent to re-evaluate the role of traditional safe haven candidates. The aim of this thesis is to test the hypothesis that the United States Dollar represents a safe haven against stocks of all developed countries during COVID-19 pandemic. I implement a threshold regression model to capture the non-linear linkages between safe haven assets and global stock markets, which is largely documented in the recent literature. Indeed, my empirical approach allows me to distinguish between a low- and high-stress regime, and to control for the impact of carry trade reversals. According to the estimation results, the US dollar acted as a strong safe haven during COVID-19 pandemic, experiencing no significant influence of carry trade dynamics. My results, paired with those of previous research on the haven-linked US dollar, further suggest that the safe haven role of a given asset may be sensitive to changes over time and across markets. |
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