Author(s):
Tobías, A ; Hashizume, M ; Honda Y ; Sera, F ; Ng, CFS ; Kim, Y ; Roye, D ; Chung, Y ; Dang, TN ; Kim, H ; Lee, W ; Íñiguez, C ; Vicedo-Cabrera, A ; Abrutzky, R ; Guo, Y ; Tong, S ; Coelho, MSZS ; Saldiva, PHN ; Lavigne, E ; Correa, PM ; Ortega, NV ; Kan, H ; Osorio, S ; Kyselý, J ; Urban, A ; Orru, H ; Indermitte, E ; Jaakkola, JJK ; Ryti, NRI ; Pascal, M ; Huber, V ; Schneider, A ; Katsouyanni, K ; Analitis, A ; Entezari, A ; Mayvaneh, F ; Goodman, P ; Zeka, A ; Michelozzi, P ; de'Donato, F ; Alahmad, B ; Diaz, MH ; De la Cruz, Valencia, C ; Overcenco, A ; Houthuijs, D ; Ameling, C ; Rao, S ; Di Ruscio, F ; Carrasco, G ; Seposo, X ; Nunes, B ; Madureira, J ; Holobaca, IH ; Scovronick, N ; Acquaotta, F ; Forsberg, B ; Åström, C ; Ragettli, MS ; Guo, YL ; Chen, BY ; Li, S ; Colistro, V ; Zanobetti, A ; Schwartz, J ; Dung, DV ; Armstrong, B ; Gasparrini, A
Date: 2021
Persistent ID: https://hdl.handle.net/10216/149533
Origin: Repositório Aberto da Universidade do Porto
Subject(s): Adaptation; Climate; Distributed lag nonlinear models; Minimum mortality temperature; Multi-city; Multi-country; Time-series
Description
Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. Results: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD. Conclusions: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.
